Bulletin of Forestry Science / Volume 6 / Issue 1 / Pages 25-34
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Assessing the expected impact of climate change on forest yield potential in the AGRAGIS project

Gábor Illés & Tamás Fonyó

Correspondence

Correspondence: Illés Gábor

Postal address: H-9600 Sárvár, Várkerület 30/a.

e-mail: illesg[at]erti.hu

Abstract

Climate change requires actions from political, social, economic, and scientific stakeholders. The AGRAGIS project during the development of National Adaptation Geo-information System aimed to assess the climate change induced potential impacts on yield conditions of forests. During the project on the basis of the historical meteorological database of the country (CarpatClim-Hu), and using the ALADIN and RegCM regional climate models we have assessed the expected forest climate zone shifts in Hungary. Yield data of forests as a baseline came from forest stands that were established in the early 1960s, which are being now the 6th age-class. Yield data for forests under changed conditions came from forest stands that were established in the early 1990s, which are being now the 3rd age-class. Climate change facts between the periods of 1961-1990 and 1991-2010 can be statistically evaluated in this way together with yield changes of forest stands. By the projection of average statistical differences according to site we can assess the expected changes in yield potential for future time windows of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Results showed that a drop is expected for all major species’ yield potential to different extent under future climate conditions.

Keywords: climate change, yield change, climate change impact assessment

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    Cite this article as:

    Illés, G. & Fonyó, T. (2016): Assessing the expected impact of climate change on forest yield potential in the AGRAGIS project. Bulletin of Forestry Science, 6(1): 25-34. (in Hungarian) DOI: 10.17164/EK.2016.003

    Volume 6, Issue 1
    Pages: 25-34

    DOI: 10.17164/EK.2016.003

    First published:
    27 September 2016

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